Published on September 22, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Two friends sit on a beach somewhere on the French Atlantic coast… With this fictitious story the reader is invited to spot the metaphors often used in economic and market comments.
Published on July 31, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Policy normalisation makes communication particularly important, even more so when monetary policy has been very easy for a very long time and when different tools have been used to that end (policy rate at the zero lower bound or lower, quantitative easing, forward guidance).
Published on July 26, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
The importance of structural policy is unquestionable. This was clearly explained by Mario Draghi at the ECB Conference in Sintra. However, their impact not only depends on the timing but also on the types of measures, the credibility and the interaction with other policy measures.
Published on July 25, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Mario Draghi’s speech on 26 July 2012 was instrumental in calming down markets. The dominating concern today is how to bring monetary policy normalisation without creating market disruption.
Published on July 18, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Eurozone economic growth is robust. This dynamism is shared amongst its members. However, important structural differences remain. The favourable cyclical environment calls for an economic policy to boost potential GDP growth and strengthen the resilience.
Published on July 11, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
The market reaction to the introductory speech of Mario Draghi at the ECB conference in Sintra was strong
This reflects a high degree of unease about the prospect of a policy normalisation.
Published on July 3, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Monetary policy normalisation is a balancing act: tighten too early could trigger a recession, hike too late could mean an inflation overshoot and a need to raise rates more aggressively. The reaction of financial markets adds to the complexity of the balancing act. Different factors have made the job of central banks more difficult in recent years.
Published on June 27, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
Replace ‘blue sky’ with ‘robust growth’ and ‘umbrellas’ with ‘economic policy instruments’ and you have a description of the global economic environment: robust growth but, if a downturn would come, very little manoeuvring room for fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate growth. All the more reason to keep a watchful eye on the horizon, and to prepare for clouds to appear.
Published on May 9, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
After the French Election back to the economy as a market driver with a focus on the ECB
Published on May 4, 2017 by William De Vijlder.
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